The War of Republican Succession

Mitt Romney, the former Governor of Massachusetts, announced on Monday the formation of his exploratory committee for President. No dithering like Gingrich, no Transformers-style videos like Pawlenty. Just a straight-forward, to-the-camera video announcement that touts his economic experience, his hope for America, and the need to spread the message around. His website has been “re-Presidentialized,” with a sharp new logo and a red “donate now” button.
The war has begun.

A characteristic of the Republican Party is that it seems to treat presidential nominations as a torch handed down from one candidate to the next, where loyal supporters boost candidates who have been “waiting in line” for the next opportunity to rise. This has happened time and time again. Reagan, who lost to Ford in the 1976 race, became the 1980 nominee. Bush, Sr., who lost to Reagan in 1980, became the 1988 nominee. Dole, an unsuccessful VP candidate in 1976, became the 1996 nominee. Recently, John McCain, the 2008 nominee, came second to Bush in the 2000 primary race.
Note that this isn’t always the case: in 2000, for example, the nomination was wide open. But in 2012, one clear successor emerges, and that successor is Mitt Romney. Romney, who came second to McCain in 2008, won a multitude of primaries and developed a solid following during his run. A history-making candidate due to his affiliation with the Church of the Latter-Day Saints, Romney was passed over by McCain in favor of Sarah Palin as a Vice Presidential pick, a move that may have hurt McCain in a year where the nation’s economy was a critical issue. Today, Romney enters the race as the frontrunner, leading numerous polls and, significantly, is the only Republican competitive against the President. His economic credentials are highly valuable in a year where the Republicans are eager to discredit President Obama’s economic policies. Having run before, he knows how to run a campaign. He has an existing base of volunteers and supporters, and deep pockets with which to fund his own candidacy.
Then why, with all these advantages, is he not a shoo-in?
Many Republicans are not fond of Romney. For one, his (albeit successful) healthcare plan in Massachusetts, dubbed RomneyCare, is not seen favorably by Republicans that view it as just another packaging of Obama’s plan. Furthermore, his LDS background, his moderate social views (he was governor when same-sex marriage was legalized in Massachusetts), and his tendency to “flip-flop” on the issues also hurt him with voters. He also has new challengers vying for the nomination crown, disputing his right to the throne. For one, we have Sarah Palin, the base-energizing former Alaska governor who ran for VP in 2008. Seen as exciting and an effective campaigner, Palin’s campaign would have the spark Romney’s been-there,-done-that campaign lacks. There are also other contenders: Tim Pawlenty, another successful former blue state governor without the RomneyCare baggage, is a new face to the national scene, while Newt Gingrich, the former speaker, is a battle-tested politician who succeeded in bringing his party to the top. Then there is Mr. Trump, a billionaire celebrity who is surging in the polls. Though Romney has the lead now, he may not come 2012. Let us not forget the example of now-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who appeared to be the Democratic successor in 2008 but was swiftly derailed by a booming Obama campaign sparked by successes in Iowa. So Romney, though he might be one of the Republicans’ best choices for 2012, will struggle to even become a general election option.
Either way, though, the race is on. The heavyweights are finding their way into the ring. Two of the four main frontrunners, Gingrich and Romney – the other two being Palin and Huckabee – are “exploring” their runs, which is a nice way of saying they’re in. Let’s see how long the niceness lasts as 2012 gets closer and closer.
Photo credit: Marc Nozell, from Flickr, via Wikimedia Commons. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Mitt_Romneyrally2.jpg