In light of recent developments in Tunisia, Arab dictators in neighboring countries have come to realize that law enforcements, or dictator-existence enforcements for that matter, are of no value in face of a national uproar. The ratio of police officers to citizens in Tunisia was a staggering 1:40. Yet, such police force could not contain the most recent civil disorder in Tunisia. As Tunisians celebrate their new government, dictators of other Arab countries are hesitantly counting their last days behind their gold-made-steel-sprayed bunkers. Of those countries, Egypt has stood out as a potential trend follower.
The Egyptian case has been particularly interesting. Egypt is in so many respects similar to Tunisia in terms of governing entity and economic miseries. Ben Ali, the Tunisian President, has assumed office for 23 years, while Husni Mubarak, the Egyptian President, has been in office since 1981, which translates to 29.3 years as a dictator of a poor nation in a struggling economy.
Commodity prices have skyrocketed in both countries as both inefficient governments grappled with inflation. In Egypt, for example, inflation reached 12% in 2010 and 18.30% in 2009. While prices uncontrollably soared, job growth remained stagnant accompanied by high unemployment rates that easily reached double digits.
The above scenario is, sadly enough, getting too traditional and perhaps too ubiquitous. While such dire situations proved sufficient incentives for a civil disorder in Tunisia and as a result an overthrow of the government, Egypt remains under the tyranny of Husni Mubarak. But why the discrepancy? Both countries have cultural, religious, governmental, and economical similarities. Yet, one is savoring freedom and one is savoring the only free service offered –time in jail.
The requirements for civil disorder and a nationwide uproar require more than dire economical situations and a corrupt government as incentives. Literacy rate and level of a nation’s education are core components in a revolution. Tunisians possess a higher literacy rate, 77%, compared to Egypt’s 66%. Educated youth in Tunisia outnumber those in Egypt. As knowledge becomes more easily accessible and more comprehensible among people, and as the information age helps stitch different pieces of dissatisfaction together, any undemocratic government will eventually find it harder to justify its actions and therefore its existence.
I believe that Egypt is the second piece in a game of dominoes, with Tunisia being first. But before we witness a second uproar, I suspect the Egyptian government will take the necessary precautions against a similar uproar. Some of these precautions will most likely include governmental financial assistance to the millions of poor people in Egypt. However, such actions are usually dangerous because as Egypt adopts quantitative easing, it increases the risk of yet a bigger inflation. The toll of inflation will be passed to the middle class in the form of a rise in prices. This stereotypically educated class has supposedly received no financial assistance and thus it will eventually rise against the government.
But what if the Egyptian government decides to increase police manpower and stand idle before its citizens? Well, either way, the Egyptian government is in for a bumpy ride. Even with a 1:40 ratio, Tunisian police forces were unable to stop the people of Tunisia. Egypt can only hope for the best.
Even if Tunisian riots go unnoticed by the government and the people, I argue that an Egyptian revolution is imminent for the sole reason that suppression of basic freedoms and education cannot go hand in hand. Disregarding any short-reaching government actions or inactions, the spread of information is an untamed monster. Education in Egypt has shifted from being a “microtrend” in the past to an essential megatrend. Unlike in the U.S, where analysts argue that the value of a college degree is on the decline, Egyptian scholars find it increasingly important to pursue academic degrees.
In times where population nearly triples in a matter of 50 years, physical workforce becomes more widely available to those who need physical labor. Therefore, education has become a tool for youth to distinguish themselves from their peers in hopes of landing in a better job. Obviously, Egyptian youth will be more exposed to definitions of human rights and to the importance of democracy and a self-governing nation. These drastic changes can no longer go unnoticed, especially as we start playing dominoes.
And this is where I stop writing and start watching news develop.
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