It was the plot heard around the world. In a change from the official itinerary, the onboard transponder of U.S. Air Force-operated Boeing C-40C “SPAR19” sent out positional mapping data that indicated that the aircraft intended to fly north of the Philippines, toward Taipei, instead of its originally presumed destination of South Korea. FlightRadar24 identified that some 2.9 million users were tracking the flightpath of the plane, before the website briefly crashed due to user overload. The aircraft carrying Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House of the United States, touched down in Taiwan on Tuesday night, among a fleet of Taiwanese fighter jets mobilized to ward away Chinese aircraft within its defense zone. This visit comes after a wave of skepticism: President Biden explained, when asked about a potential trip in late July, that “the military thinks it’s not a good idea right now.” Earlier in the week Chinese propagandists denounced the anticipated trip, claiming that such an attempt could result in the plane being shot down.
Pelosi’s trip, while oozing with drama and photo opportunities, is not totally surprising. American foreign strategy has continually shifted away from the longstanding “One China” policy as established in the 1972 Shanghai communique, which essentially broke diplomatic ties with Taiwan. Over the years, silent acknowledgment moved to more vocal support. This shift was materialized in 2016, when then President-elect Trump accepted a congratulatory call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen. Hours later, when faced with backlash about this apparent shift in policy, Trump tweeted: “Interesting how the U.S. sells Taiwan billions of dollars of military equipment but I should not accept a congratulatory call.” The Biden administration followed suit in November of 2021, inviting Taiwan to join the “Summit for Democracy.” Meanwhile, Secretary of State Blinken called for Taiwan to be given increased participation in the U.N., and his predecessor Mike Pompeo was welcomed in Taipei and appointed Special Grand Cordon of the Order of the Brilliant Star for his work in developing U.S.-Taiwan relations. Pompeo offered to travel with Pelosi to Taiwan in a tweet in late July.
As she emerged from the most tracked plane on the planet, Pelosi explained that the official purpose of the trip was to “honor America’s unwavering commitment to supporting Taiwan’s vibrant democracy.” A broader analysis shows that this trip is set against the backdrop of a surge in Chinese military spending, increased aggression in Eastern Europe, and a global market attempting to claw back against Taiwan’s monopoly on computer chips. In the face of changing conditions, the weights of optimum U.S. strategy are adapting, making a strengthened relationship with Taiwan more viable than ever.
What this trip demonstrates, then, is not a change in the U.S. playbook, but instead the shifting balance of power in East Asia that renders such a trip plausible. The U.S. has long appeased China, which it held up as the region’s political and economic powerhouse, in part by negating Taiwanese independence. Now, however, it has fewer incentives to do so in the face of the country’s blatant shortcomings. It was plain to see that China’s initial cover-up and subsequent handling of the COVID-19 pandemic bore closer resemblance to a human rights violation than the strategy of the world’s next superpower. Despite boasting of their global contributions to the pandemic, the Chinese vaccine was slow to develop and largely ineffective, unlike those of its Western counterparts. The international community has denounced China for its active persecution of the Uyghur population, which the United States has catergorized as genocide. Similarly, the first-ever joint briefing from the heads of the FBI and MI5 took place in July, explicitly to highlight the threat posed by Chinese espionage. Any mysticism about China’s capabilities held by the West has been confronted by hard evidence and subsequent hostility.
That illusion has also been shattered on the battlefield and reflects changing dynamics between democracies and autocracies in an increasingly techno-powered world. The Russian invasion of Ukraine gave the world its first insight as to what a full-scale war would look like in the 21st century. Western-supplied smart weapons in Ukraine were able to create a formidable opposition against the older technologies and tactics of the Russians, even when heavily outnumbered. The bulk of China’s military relies on similarly dated technology, and unlike Russia and Ukraine, is separated from its target by 80 miles of ocean. The war on the battlefields of Europe has proven to the United States and to the world that a well-supplied democracy with modern weapons can hold its own, even when the numbers are not in their favor. The 20th century autocratic staple of sprawling armies with poor training, low rations, and minimal morale no longer holds up. While it can’t guarantee a win, the U.S. now has enough evidence from Ukraine to know that an invasion of Taiwan would not necessarily be a total loss.
Even still, China remains powerful. But, the U.S. is no longer incentivized to publicly recognize China’s singularity while quietly selling cutting-edge weapons to support its neighbor. The complexity of the former relationship is quickly unraveling. The days of the 2008 Beijing Olympics and ping-pong diplomacy are quickly falling behind us. What remains is much closer to a Cold War adversarial relationship — the kind of relationship where sending Nancy Pelosi to its cultural rival is fair game.
As the West’s interest in cooperating with China has dropped, Taiwan’s global significance has only risen, mainly because of its computer chip industry. When semiconductor supply chains stalled near the beginning of the pandemic, the global markets were reminded of just how dependent they were on Taiwanese production: 90% of the world’s advanced semiconductors are manufactured on the island. Apple’s chips are almost exclusively produced in Taiwan. The United States cannot build the F35 fighter jet without computer components made by TSMC, Taiwan’s leading chip producer. Over 2020, while most of the world suffered declining economies, Taiwan was able to beat every member of the G20 and grew its economy by 3%, and is critical in expanding global manufacturing that has been slumping due to chip shortages.
There is currently no alternative to the Taiwanese chip. No one else on the planet can come close to being able to replicate the quality and quantity of what Taiwan is producing. Many are trying — last week Congress approved over $50 billion via the U.S. Chips Act to kickstart American semiconductor manufacturing. The EU has similar ambitions. China has been trying, and failing, since the 2010s. It is clear that the techniques and infrastructure to create such complex products take decades to perfect. Taiwan has been able to combine state sponsored research and development with close domestic industry control to ensure that if there is a breakthrough, it happens on their island. Those countries that are able to work with Taiwan to jump ahead in the learning curve stand to gain. For the U.S., that means increased diplomatic relations, and the occasional visit from the Speaker of the House — who is reported to have had a video call with the head of TSMC, before attending the State Banquet held in her honor.
These shifting balances of power put China in a particularly sensitive position. To hold leverage, they must pose a viable threat. And they’ve been working to do so: As Taiwan’s business boomed, so too has the Chinese navy. Between 2014 and 2018, China launched as many vessels as the navies of Spain, Germany, India, and the United Kingdom combined. As President Xi Jinping looks to consolidate his power into a third term, and possibly as de facto Emperor, he must show strength to the Chinese people. However, it is becoming increasingly clear that much of Xi’s strength has gone untested, and that despite the promotional military videos released this week, China may not be as all-powerful as it claims.
In response to Pelosi’s trip, China has halted dialogue with the U.S. on various issues, including climate change, perhaps hoping to assert its weight. It has also conducted extensive live fire and other military exercises around the island. The threat these demonstrations represent is real. However, the image of an unstoppable, all-powerful China they attempt to convey pales against an increasingly confident U.S., a powerful Taiwan, and a changing tide in the South China sea.
Image by Jason Hong is licensed under the Unsplash License.
