Party Discipline

You know who is one of the most dependable Democrats in the Senate right now? Arlen Spector (D-PA).  It does not take any great insight to figure out why that is; Spector is rightly afraid of a successful primary challenge from Joe Sestak over his insufficient progressivism.  On the Republican side of the aisle is further proof positive: the threats leveled against defectors on important votes (such as my congressman, Mark Kirk (R-IL)) have allowed for the maintenance of tight party discipline.  It is of course easier to maintain discipline for the opposition, which merely requires obstructionism, than it is for the majority, which requires creating winners and losers out of important interest groups (unions, business, banks, auto companies and health insurance firms all come to mind).  The Democratic margin in the House is big enough to basically immunize them from most intraparty opposition.  Though not all, as the Progressive Caucus (who knew, right?) prepares to exercise serious pressure on healthcare.
More pressing is the Senate, where the obstructionism of the Republicans creates a real problem for basically any significant legislation.  One would expect nothing less of the Republicans; other than Collins and Snowe, of Maine, basically all of these Republicans can expect to be “primaried” if they don`t fight tooth and nail to kill anything of real importance.  The White House and Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) should be and likely are assuming complete Republican intransigence as a given.  The main issue is Democrats, specifically a very small number of them, primarily Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Ben Nelson, (D-NE) and Evan Bayh (D-IN).  These three Senators, simply put, don`t want health reform to happen, and the rules for cloture require at least one of their votes (three if neither Collins or Snowe can be had).
There are a number of tactics.  One is concessions; this assumes a good-faith posture on their part, which cannot be relied on.  More importantly, concessions may well cripple the bill.  One is the direct threat, which may come in a variety of ways.  Ben Nelson may not consider this credible; a more liberal primary challenger would crash and burn in a Nebraska general election.  And indeed it`s not a credible threat.  I think, however, that Obama shouldn`t be threatening so much as pointing out the stark realities of the situation.  Bill Kristol said recently that defeating effective healthcare reform is absolutely key to Republican success in 2010…which seems correct. If Ben Nelson kills healthcare reform, he is helping invite a Republican wave.  And that wave is not going to break in Massachusetts, it`s going to break in Nebraska, Louisiana, and Indiana.  Ambitious health reform is more essential to Ben Nelson`s reelection than insurance industry donations, he just doesn`t know it yet.   But Obama is a great communicator.