North Korea and China: Is the Tail Wagging the Dog?

Never in recent decades have tensions in the Korean peninsula been so high. North Korea’s recent artillery barrage against a South Korean island has caused the latter to raise its state of military readiness to its highest level short of war. Assuming the North’s artillery barrage had been calculated to occur shortly after its revelation of a modern uranium enrichment plant, its one-two punch couldn’t have been better timed to throw the entire region into disarray.
These two incidents seem to show the helplessness of not only Korea, but the U.S as well. President Obama may have been woken up at 3.55am to be told the news, but America has not, it seems, been able to wield significant influence over the entire situation. A Financial Times articles, titled “US has no good options over Korea clash,” appears to be an apt description of America’s role in the crisis. Indeed, some may be tempted to interpret this as a sign of its already fading hegemony in East Asia. A counterpart to this particular view of East Asia’s changing geopolitical landscape is that America’s declining influence is paralleled by China’s rise in its own backyard. During a media briefing, Assistant Secretary of State for Public Affairs P.J. Crowley said: “China is pivotal to moving North Korea in a fundamentally different direction.” As a longtime patron of North Korea and its despotic regime, China, it then seems, appears to be able to pull all the strings.
However, just as the decline of the U.S in the region is overstated, so is the claim that China is becoming increasingly dominant in the East China Sea. The very fact that North Korea did both these things despite China’s previous calls for restraint shows that this long-time ally has instead become a diplomatic liability. In essence, it turns out that China’s misbehaving client state has decided to up the ante, at its own peril. Rather than highlighting China’s strength, this artillery barrage incident has underscored China’s vulnerability to a possible Korean conflict and collapse of the North. The North’s collapse, and the ensuing influx of refugees into China, would severely test the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party. Referring to one of the causes of the Soviet Union’s collapse, one official senior Chinese security official has admitted, “North Korea is our East Germany.”
Already, America has started flexing its military muscle. Washington’s recent decision to dispatch the aircraft carrier USS George Washington to the Yellow Sea, meant to both deter North Korea and reassure the South, has left China characteristically antsy. Another firing incident of any sort would ignite a tinderbox of conflict in the region. A far more plausible outcome is Kim Jong Il using this pyrotechnic act of stubbornness to extort money and concessions for his regime. Far from showing how paltry U.S influence in East Asia is to China’s own, the Hermit Kingdom has managed to get the two most powerful countries in the world to keep dancing to its maddening tune.
Photocredit: Reuters