Here’s what I would be thinking, if I were running the Republican Party.
Well, I don’t know if this stimulus package is going to work.
So let’s suppose it works. Well, then we’re in trouble no matter how many Republican votes in got in Congress. The more tax cuts we can stuff in, we’ll win some points; people hate taxes. But it won’t matter; a Republican President and Congress will be perceived as having destroyed the economy, and a Democratic one will be perceived as having saved it. It doesn’t matter whether that’s the truth or not, because that’ll be the perception and perception is reality come election-time. And if we struggle too much against it, and it works, it’ll be even worse for us.
Now, what if it doesn’t work? The central fact is still the same: no matter how many of us voted for it, it’ll still be his baby. Again, if we can lard it up with tax cuts, we’ll win points; people hate taxes. Interestingly, conventional economic wisdom says that tax cuts are less strongly stimulative than government spending.* So we might make this less effective while winning points for ourselves come 2010? I think I see an optimum strategy!
Whatever happens, we can’t let the Democrats pass another New Deal or we’re finished for 20 years.
Now, that’s what an amoral Republican w/ more regard for party than country would think. I don’t actually think the party leadership is like that (though Rush Limbaugh certainly is). I think they’re pretty ideologically committed and are doing what they think is best for the country. I’m just noting that the leadership happens to be following the same strategy our hypothetical diabolically scheming Republican would. But if anything of that strategy holds true, it’s the last: a New New Deal would neuter the Republican Party for the foreseeable future, and they have to be worried at the (faint) possibility.
*: Before you sass me for linking to Krugman, actually read it. He’s referencing conventional wisdom, and the equation is right there.
