Midterm Madness

A Republican resurgence in the 2010 election?
One year into the Obama presidency, the Democrats have faltered on key initiatives, most notably health care reform, and public dissatisfaction with Congress has skyrocketed. Many factors that allowed for the GOP takeover in 1994, including voter frustration, a struggling health care reform effort, frail economic conditions, and a weakened Democratic president, recur today. Although the Democrats are prepared to defend their seats, if the GOP can take advantage of voter frustration and control the energized Tea Party contingent of its party, the Republicans will make significant gains in both the House and Senate in the upcoming midterm elections.
ANGRY ANGRY VOTERS

When Obama took office, he enjoyed high approval ratings and seemingly insurmountable congressional majorities. Voters had entrusted the Democratic Party with complete control of the federal government after expressing intense frustration with the Bush administration during the 2006 and 2008 elections. However, Matthew Baum of the Harvard Kennedy School explained that “expectations were so high and reality so bleak that it is not a surprise that many people were disappointed with Obama’s first year in office.” Indeed, despite the Obama administration’s and Congress’ efforts, the economy has not fully recovered, and the job situation is still bleak. Furthermore, Obama invested much of his political capital in health care reform, and has not yet seen tangible results. If reform does pass, it will nevertheless have cost Obama a great deal more time and political capital than he expected.
What may have turned popular support away from the Democrats was the extraordinary breadth of the agenda that Obama pursued. With a very high unemployment rate, Obama attempted to tackle health care reform, overhaul the conduct of two wars, and pass climate-change legislation. Many voters perceived all this activity as disregard for fiscal discipline. Former representative Ernest Istook (R-OK) told the HPR, “People have realized that spending more and increasing the size of government seems to be the common factor and principal motivation behind the decisions made in Washington.” According to a Rasmussen survey from early February, 75 percent of likely voters are “angry at [the] government’s current policies,” numbers typically seen before elections marked by major pick-ups for the minority party. Congressional approval ratings are similarly disastrous, a bad sign for the Democrats, who have controlled the legislative branch since 2007.
DEMS AND REPS MANUEVER

Democratic performance in November will depend on some semblance of economic growth, and though the economy has improved recently, high unemployment bodes poorly for the Democrats’ prospects heading into the midterm elections. Republican Scott Brown’s surprise victory in the Massachusetts Senate race set off alarm bells within the Democratic Party, prompting national attempts to rally an unenthusiastic base. According to Baum, “hubris definitely contributed to electoral defeat [in 1994],” and this year the campaign committees for House and Senate Democrats are fundraising nonstop, resolved not to repeat their mistakes.
The GOP cannot approach the midterms too complacently, however, as Republican incumbents must be careful to fend off attacks from the right. Even 2008 Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is facing a serious primary challenger, former representative J.D. Hayworth. Tea Party members, who are strongly opposed to many of Obama’s economic policies, are threatening Republicans to push their candidates rightward. The Tea Party movement, which has energized conservative and libertarian activists nationwide, has gained a significant following. But Istook predicts that “there will be continuing friction, but not major conflict” between the mainstream Republicans and the Tea Party.
An enthusiastic Republican base, including the Tea Parties, and widespread dissatisfaction with Democrats are key advantages for the GOP. If Republicans and passionate conservative activists cooperate, the overall conservative movement can overcome minor internal dissension. Furthermore, huge swings in independent support have uprooted the political balance. In recent elections in three states that Obama carried in 2008, Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts, independents have voted 2:1 for Republican candidates.
Significant Republican gains in the House and Senate are extremely likely, given the present political climate and the lessons of history. Having won many competitive seats in the past two election cycles, the Democrats have a lot of ground to defend, a weakness compounded by the current economic environment. Although voters have not fully forgiven the GOP for its missteps during the past decade, by skillfully channeling voter frustration and offering a clear vision for America’s future, the Republicans could take back control of Congress.
Alex Chen ’13 is a Staff Writer.
Photo Credit: asecondhandconjecture (Flickr)