In the first half of the 20th century, when the rapidly industrializing world developed its insatiable appetite for oil, the Persian Gulf found itself atop a black gold mine. The region was strapped to the engine of global capitalism and propelled into modernity.
The fledgling nations which comprised it, sired in their statehood by European diplomats in the wake of World War I, were largely populated by disparate Bedouin tribes with little polity or economy to speak of. Consequently, the influx of oil-begotten riches was primarily directed into the coffers of dynastic ruling families, entrenching many of them for decades to come.
The present-day Persian Gulf is defined by this history, and is still largely characterized by resource-dependent economies, extraordinary wealth disparities, and antiquated civil and legal frameworks.
But the global community is moving away from oil in anticipation of resource depletion and climate change, leaving these nations at risk of collapse if they fail to diversify their economic output. What can be done?
The 37-year-old Crown Prince and ruler of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, is at the helm of one of these nations. And he has a plan.
“Vision 2030,” announced by MBS in 2016, is his roadmap to Saudi Arabia’s post-oil future, featuring sweeping economic, political, and social reforms intended to transform the Kingdom into a global hub for business and tourism.
Initiatives under the plan range from the predictable — establishing global technology forums and government-run venture capital funds, opening the country’s borders to tourists, and committing to clean energy targets — to the progressive — providing women with the right to drive and expanding their ability to run businesses — to the fantastical — promising pharaonic construction projects such as the $500 billion NEOM urban area, which features everything from ski resorts and commuter swimming lanes to a 170 kilometer long smart city devoid of cars and emissions.
The success of a project so staggering in scale and ambition will depend on a multitude of factors, and the challenges Saudi Arabia faces are manifold. In addition to implementing the project’s many complex components, the Kingdom must convince the Western public, institutions and investing class of the project’s promise and legitimacy, maintain its domestic support, and uphold cordial foreign relations in one of the world’s most volatile regions.
Vision 2030 has experienced real successes since its launch. Saudi Arabia’s nominal GDP growth in 2022 was an impressive 8.7%, placing it first in the G20. Its tech sectors have ballooned, with the e-commerce sector alone expected to exceed $13 billion in valuation by 2025. The proportion of Saudi women in the workforce has doubled in the last four years to 33%, surpassing the 30% target laid out in the original plan.
But the plan has fallen short on several counts as well. International tourism has proved a hard sell for wary Westerners, and the tourists that do arrive seem to be a motley crew of intrepid Christian fundamentalists and Saudi-bankrolled social media influencers. Grandiose construction projects have been plagued by setbacks upon contact with reality. And, despite a ready availability of solar and wind energy, as well as an enviable uranium endowment, ambitious sustainability targets have proved infeasible and have been quietly scaled back numerous times.
Vision 2030’s prospects and the Kingdom’s reputation have been further dimmed by a number of international scandals, notably the brutal assassination of Saudi dissident and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in October 2018, which was linked to MBS by numerous intelligence reports. This occurred less than a year after NEOM was unveiled, and the resulting international backlash triggered a wave of high-profile resignations from the project’s board, including those of Sam Altman and the former U.S. Secretary of Energy, Ernest Moniz. As another example, conspicuous Saudi jostling in international sports in recent years — including several 9-figure acquisition deals of A-list European soccer players like Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, and a well-publicized merger of a Saudi-owned golf tour with the PGA and European tours — has deepened skepticism, triggered accusations of “sportswashing,” and prompted investigations by Western organizations instead of cultivating Saudi legitimacy on the world stage.
The success of the Saudi reimagination project depends not only on the Kingdom’s capacity to effectively court the West, but also on its ability to navigate perennial rivalries and disputes in its own neck of the woods. De-escalation with its neighbors would enable Saudi Arabia to participate in joint ventures that could broaden its scope for growth, in addition to mitigating national security threats in a notoriously mercurial region.
Recent changes in Saudi foreign policy, in this context, suggest a commitment to economic development over regional dominance, and an openness to a pragmatic coexistence with local adversaries. Notably, through a China-brokered deal in March of this year, Saudi Arabia and Iran formally restored diplomatic ties after a seven-year silence — a major development between the respective leaders of the Sunni and Shia Muslim worlds. A statement published by the Saudi Press Agency specifically cited “great opportunities to achieve mutual benefit” and the promise of “stability and prosperity in the region” as key motivations for the reconciliation. Improved relations between the two regional powers could lead to a cooling of the drawn-out Saudi-Iranian proxy war in Yemen, as well as other regional conflicts in which the two powers have been embroiled at a distance.
Moreover, White House officials have suggested that MBS might sign the Abraham Accords by the end of this year, which would normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel in a monumental step towards regional stability given the Kingdom’s long-standing support for the Palestinian cause.
These signs of rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and its neighborhood rivals bode well for the success of Vision 2030, a long-term investment which could be jeopardized by sudden conflict or threat to regional stability.
Continued public support for the project will be another crucial determinant of its success. Polling suggests much of it remains in domestic favor, especially among Saudi youth. According to the 2022 Arab Youth Survey, 96% of 18- to-24-year-old Saudis approve of the tourism and leisure “giga-projects” included in the Vision 2030 schema. But Saudi Arabia remains a highly religious society, and MBS’ efforts at secularization, including defanging religious police and expanding the rights of women, could prompt a backlash from Saudi clerics. MBS has made efforts to curry the favor of Wahhabi leaders and has threatened punitive measures to dissenting groups he has called “too dogmatic to reason with,” but the situation remains uncertain. Navigating a warp-speed modernization of a deeply traditional society will likely remain a difficult task.
Vision 2030 is the brainchild of a young, ambitious autocrat with the benefit of blue-sky thinking (and $800 billion). While it has progressed successfully in some aspects, there are still notable hindrances. If MBS can continue to leverage the demographic advantages of a young, under-utilized population, while staying out of international trouble, his visions may well come to fruition. He may also be compelled to pare down his construction ambitions, lest they become totally detached from reality. He would not be the first autocrat to be remembered for spectacular visions of national reform that never materialized.
For Saudi Arabia, much hangs in the balance: The project could mean the difference between joining the global economy for good and losing a century of progress. It remains to be seen whether Vision 2030 will come to life or shimmer out of existence, like just another mirage over the Arabian sand dunes.
