Marching on Manama

As the civil war in Libya rages, protests continue in another Arab country, Bahrain. In contrast to the shoe-dragging by the West in implementing a no-fly zone, Saudi Arabia has taken a much more proactive role against the upstart revolution. Tiny Bahrain, in the Persian Gulf, has been paralyzed by mass demonstrations in the style of those in Egypt and Tunisia. While initially non-violent, the protests have magnified both in size and in the intensity of the Bahraini government’s crackdown. Saudi Arabia, in concert with the rest of the Gulf Cooperation Council, has answered the calls of the Bahraini government by sending 2,000 troops (1,200 of its own and 800 from the United Arab Emirates). Saudi intervention in its neighbors marks a change from its previous stance as a behind-the-scenes mediator to a more aggressive actor in regional affairs.

While it is common to think of Saudi Arabia as a careful exerciser of power working behind the scenes, historically the Saudis have demonstrated their willingness to intervene in their neighbors’ affairs. During the 1960s, Saudi Arabia entered its southern neighbor, Yemen, in order to prevent the monarchy from being toppled. The organizers of the coup allied themselves with Egypt, launching a conflict between the conservative royalty of Saudi Arabia and the pan-Arab socialism of Nasser. Ultimately the Saudis acquiesced to a Yemeni republic, ending that experiment in intervention.
Yemen, however, would provide a new source of instability that has launched a new wave of Saudi adventuring. Always poor and unstable, a new round of civil war arose in 2004 when the Houthi tribe in the north of Yemen launched an armed campaign. Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute notes that the tribal conflict has taken on sectarian overtones, with the Shiite Houthis striking against what they perceive as Sunni dominance. Of course, any word of conflict between Sunnis and Shiites raises the specter of Iranian influence. Saudi Arabia has specifically accused Iran of intervening in the Houthi conflict, and has over the last two years engaged itself in a war along the Yemeni border. Ostensibly this was to prevent Houthi incursions into Saudi territory, but the clear underlying message was for Iran to get out of the Saudi sphere of influence.
And now while that conflict continues, albeit to a lesser extent, Saudi boots are now on the ground in another country torn by Sunni-Shiite strife. Again, the notion of a Shiite-dominated revolution in the Arabian Peninsula has the Saudis jittery. They have strongly hinted at Iranian meddling in Bahrain that is designed to topple the Sunni monarchy. Saudi Arabia’s actions indicate a more forceful push against the encroachment of Iranian influence upon the Gulf States. Iran has already made a habit of claiming Bahrain as a historical territory, most recently through an official organ of the regime. In the meantime, the recent Wikileaks cables reveal that Saudi Arabia has been a quiet cheerleader for a harsh Western stance towards Iran. Statements such as “Cut off the head of the snake” leave the Saudi policy towards American intervention quite unambiguous. Likewise the news that Saudi Arabia would allow Israeli overflight during an attack on Iran leaves one wondering why this information would leak if the Saudis were not intent on someone taking action.
It’s clear that Saudi Arabia is impatient with Iran’s growth in the region, and its recent actions indicate a willingness to take bold steps in maintaining its regional status. What does an emboldened Saudi Arabia mean for the United States? In the case of Bahrain, the Saudis have  placed America in a very awkward spot. Already criticized for its delay in supporting the anti-Mubarak forces in Egypt, the United States now has to figure out how to maneuver between its natural tendency to support popular government and its necessity of keeping good relations with the Gulf States.
As if that were not enough, the U.S.’s Fifth Fleet calls Bahrain home. Now that the proxy battle between Saudi and Iranian-aligned forces seems to be turning into an actual battle, the U.S. might find itself literally in the crossfire. Saudi Arabia has already made its moves; its leaders, while still calling the United States an ally, will be oriented more towards actively pursuing Saudi interests, whether the West is on board or not. The task, now, for President Obama and Secretary Clinton, is figuring out whether Saudi interests can be aligned with American interests. While in the broadest sense, both nations want to see Iranian power curtailed, it seems the Saudis are now willing to be much more forceful about this intent.