The feast of St. Valentine is traditionally seen as a day to celebrate the passion of romantic love. Yet after a high court ruled that the Kosovar government was illegitimately elected, it was the passion of the ballot box that manifested during a snap election on Feb. 14. In a campaign season that occurred amidst widespread allegations of corruption, the resignation of the previous president under accusations of war crimes, and extreme unemployment exacerbated by the pandemic, preliminary reports suggest that the leftist, pro-Albanian Lëvizja Vetëvendosje party won a landslide majority in the Kosovar legislature.
With its focus on anti-corruption and greater integration with the West, it is clear that former Prime Minister Albin Kurti and acting President Vjosa Osmani’s winning LVV campaign resonated with the people of Kosovo during an unusual time period. Moreover, it served as a sign of the nation attempting to move in a more democratic, progressive direction. What remains less clear is how the party’s admittedly lofty goals will play into the future of the fledgling nation.
How We Got Here
LVV’s success in this election is astounding, almost doubling the percentage of votes it received in the 2019 elections with a nearly 50% vote share. But the party is not entirely new to electoral success. They won a plurality in 2019, forcing it to go into coalition with the somewhat ideologically opposed Democratic League of Kosovo. The LDK later ousted them in a heavily scrutinized no-confidence vote.
LVV’s anti-corruption, pro-welfare, and pro-Albania stance fared better in 2021, partially due to the popularity of their ideas but also likely due to distrust of other parties. The LDK’s destruction and alternative rebuilding of its governmental coalition was looked down upon by various citizens — and probably played into LVV’s anti-corruption stance. President Thaçi’s resignation under international pressure did no favors for his Democratic Party of Kosovo during the election, a fact likely exacerbated by his acting replacement, Assembly Speaker Vjosa Osmani, choosing to run with LVV instead.
Valentine Goals, Post-Valentine Blues
Between all these factors, it is not surprising that LVV’s message could cut through the chaos brought upon by a messy political landscape and a pandemic that has hit the nation particularly hard. That being said, even with the popularity of LVV’s ideas as a frontrunner among its competition, it is unclear if the party can implement them with ease once the assembly convenes. The situation is not entirely rosy.
The anti-corruption message so often cited as the centerpiece of the movement is admirable, as are plans to pass anti-corruption and anti-mafia legislation through the assembly. However, we have continually seen that in other recently independent states, especially its Balkan neighbor Montenegro, such efforts are often slow-moving, undermined, and seemingly ineffective. More specifically, Kosovo shares one of the major issues that analysts point to as plaguing Montenegro’s success: constantly shifting legislation.
Kosovo has not had a government complete a full term in office since the nation’s de facto independence in 2008. As such, Kurti’s government might not be able to create substantive change in the four years the assembly is constitutionally guaranteed, not to mention the fact that most governments have had far less time. We cannot judge the success of Kurti’s approaches to anti-corruption until he implements them, but the precedent of the matter suggests, at the very least, an uphill battle.
Other valid concerns of LVV’s ambition go beyond the feasibility of its approach to corruption. The party’s pro-police stance and advocacy of mandatory military service may only serve to increase tensions within the nation and in the broad Balkan region as a whole, especially with Kosovo’s de jure independence still being up in the air.
Additionally, while the party’s pledge to improve and expand social services in the nation is commendable, it raises the question of how a nation often reported as one of the poorest in Europe is supposed to pay for these programs. This apprehension is compounded when one considers that excessive taxation may just cause further problems for the nation’s citizens. Meanwhile, the LVV party’s economic propositions, such as plans to join Albania in using the lek as a national currency instead of the far more utilized euro, may disincentivize foreign trade.
A Valentine’s Day Engagement(?)
At the center of the LVV’s program is the self-determination of the Kosovar people, specifically Kosovar Albanians. Now that the party is in power, it is likely that they will attempt to act upon ideas they have presented in the past regarding greater integration with the Land of the Eagles. These measures include using Albania’s currency, striking an article from the Kosovo Constitution that prevents the Dardanian nation from unifying with another state, and holding a referendum on unification with Albania, with the expressed endorsement of the unification option. Ethnic Albanians make up the majority of the Kosovar population, followed by Bosniaks, Serbs, and various other minority groups.
Data suggests that a majority of ethnic Albanians living in Kosovo would be in support of “Greater Albania” unification, signifying that the referendum would likely be successful. However, this change could be worse off for the nation as a whole, mainly for ethnic minorities in Kosovo. The nation’s current protections for ethnic minorities, especially within the legislative process, are not mirrored in Albanian politics. Therefore, the ethnic minorities that Kosovo must still protect may be left behind or electorally silenced. Since LVV may need the support of some minority parties to gain a clear majority in the assembly, the referendum may be a hard sell.
Additionally, such a unification would almost certainly only increase tensions between Albania, Kosovo, and Serbia. Serbia, in particular, still claims Kosovo as an autonomous province and is home to many ethnic Albanians who may feel the hurt if tensions grow hotter. This fact, combined with the hard-line stance that LVV is expected to take on the normalization of relations between Kosovo and Serbia, might only make situations worse for the young nation’s citizens, not better.
Kurti’s pro-Western, anti-Serbia stance already may not bode well for the nation’s COVID-19 recovery, as he has made clear he won’t accept vaccines from Serbia. Kosovo’s primary obstacle to success domestically and internationally is its lack of sovereignty recognition, and further tensions with Serbia and Russia will only make things worse. There may be a way for LVV to achieve all of its goals at the expense of nobody. Still, to treat those goals as anything less than a formidable challenge is a mistake.
Assorted Box of Chocolates
LVV’s success bodes some great things for Kosovo. An idealistic mission to end corruption, welfare programs for the betterment of its citizens, and a push for greater integration with the European Union are undoubtedly positive effects of an LVV assembly. However, to jump the gun and declare unilateral improvement would be a miscalculation. There are numerous and important obstacles to LVV’s objectives. As the nation celebrates its independence this week, we must remember that while parties win by votes, nation-states win by survival — and that is what is on the table with Kurti at the head.
Image Credit: “Albin Kurti duke protestuar” by AgronBeqiri is licensed for use under CC BY-SA 3.0.
