This article was co-written by Naomi Corlette, C.J. Obasi, and Aidan Scully. Data visualizations by Lucy Ding and Vivian Nguyen.
As part of the Fall 2022 Campus Poll series this semester, the Harvard Political Review seeks to understand the views of Harvard undergraduates on a variety of political topics, from campus politics to cultural issues to national policy. This is the fourth of five biweekly polls to assess the change in students’ views over the course of the semester. You can view the recaps of Week One here, Week Two here, and Week Three here.
Week Four of the Harvard Political Review’s Fall 2022 Campus Poll was conducted online via Qualtrics from Oct. 31, 2022 to Nov. 5, 2022 among the 266 valid and late respondents to the Week One poll. Unfinished, duplicate, and late responses were invalidated and excluded from the final analysis, leaving 96 valid responses for a 37.2% valid response rate.
The following is a digest version of the poll results, featuring some of the most noteworthy data points as determined by our writers. Note that since this poll was conducted before Election Day, responses will not reflect the recent election results.
Majority of respondents have faith in democracy, plurality believe it is at stake in midterms
As the results of this past week’s midterm elections continue to be tabulated, the fierce political tensions that dominated its campaign season show no sign of abating. After Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband was violently assaulted in their home, President Biden delivered a public address in which he said that “democracy itself” was at stake in the 2022 midterm elections. Biden’s comments came amidst campaigns from candidates denying the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election, who made up a majority of Republican nominees for the November elections, including 12 nominees for secretaries of state.
Against this backdrop, 48% of respondents agreed with the statement that “American democracy is at stake” in these midterm elections, with 26% disagreeing. Yet even with this near-majority belief that democracy is under threat, 53% of respondents still said that they have faith in American democracy, while 27% did not.
Especially in the context of the “red wave,” which many prominent Republicans predicted would bring them back into power in an opposition vote against the sitting president, the coexistence of these two values seems paradoxical. But if that concern was validated by the prominence of election-denying candidates, that faith appears validated by this past week’s results, which have already seen a majority of those candidates for governor or secretary of state defeated. On the national level, though results continue to be tabulated and at least one contested Senate seat will remain undecided until December, razor-thin margins are likely to define any legislative majority come 2023.
79% say there are too many members of Congress over 65 years old
The current 117th Congress is historically old, as a significant portion of the House and a majority of the Senate are older than 65. While the median age of the American population is 38, the average age of members of Congress sits much higher at 59. And some of the oldest members of that contingent show no sign of ceding their positions anytime soon, as demonstrated by Sen. Chuck Grassley’s recent victory in Iowa, winning an eighth term and potentially enabling him to sit in the Senate until he is 95. The current trio leading the Democratic majority in the House — Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn — are all octogenarians.
Larger-scale polls have largely found a desire for either term limits, age limits, or both on membership in Congress, and Harvard students followed a similar trend. Respondents overwhelmingly agreed with the statement “there are too many people older than 65 years old in Congress,” with 79% agreeing and only 6% disagreeing.
These results come in the midst of an upsurge of youth engagement and turnout, with high Democratic support among young voters largely counteracting the anticipated “red wave” in this past week’s midterm elections. The midterms also saw the first Gen Z candidate elected to Congress in Maxwell Alejandro Frost, who will replace outgoing Representative Madison Cawthorn as the youngest member of the legislature. This youth vote will likely provide even more of a counterbalance to the persistent electoral power of the elderly in coming years, as more members of Gen Z become eligible to vote and to run for higher office.
45% agree Lula will be an improvement over Bolsonaro, 47% neutral
In Brazil’s recent presidential election, former President Lula beat the incumbent President Bolsonaro. This came after a tight race, where many believed Bolsonaro would ultimately win. Despite setbacks, including serving a jail sentence, Lula was able to pull through with 50.9% of the vote, achieving a narrow victory.
When asked to rate agreement with the statement “Lula will be an improvement over Bolsonaro as president of Brazil”, respondents were split. Approximately 45% of students responded agree or strongly agree, while only around 7% of respondents disagreed. It is important to note, however, that 47% of respondents, nearly half, were neutral concerning this statement, either due to a lack of opinion or a lack of knowledge.
This is surprising considering how divisive this election has been, and even now Bolsonaro supporters are taking to the street, protesting the election results. Just outside Harvard’s gates, Congresso Conservador Brasileiro, a conservative Brazilian group, held a protest against the election results in the square on Nov. 6. They gathered around 100 protestors who opposed the election results, primarily by questioning the integrity of voting machines. There was also a small counter-protest by Harvard students, who hoped to defend democratic systems.
It is clear that anti-democratic sentiments are becoming more prevalent among conservative movements around the world, as these protests come just a few years after election denying movements following the U.S. 2020 presidential election. Despite these protests reaching the gates of Harvard, it appears that students are largely uninformed. A lack of knowledge on this new movement internationally may have implications for whether these trends will remain prevalent in the upcoming 2024 American election.
Conclusion
The Week Four poll was conducted prior to the midterm elections, closing the Saturday before Election Day, yet its results seem to be largely in keeping with the results that emerged from the midterms so far; support for youth engagement, youth representation, and supporting pro-democracy candidates as a means of defending democracy — both at home and abroad. The fifth and final poll will determine whether the actual results of those midterm elections have changed respondents’ perspectives, and will gauge their responses to “the red wave that wasn’t.”
Every other week throughout the semester, the HPR will seek to bring light to shifting opinions on campus concerning a wide range of political and cultural issues, as well as gauge the student body’s thoughts on current events such as these.
Image by Swathi Kella created for use by Harvard Political Review.
