Here referring not to disdain of the volk, but rather to rule by elites. Obama’s presidency is going to confront a number of entrenched, very powerful elites who will clash in very significant ways, so I thought I’d take a stab at a quick rundown.
Educated Elite: Easily the largest group here, but the least institutionally entrenched. Their sole institutional advantage is the office of the President, and a number of his advisors. They got Obama elected, and moreover Obama happens to be one of them. If Obama doesn’t please them, it’s not like they’ll vote for Republicans, but he can’t survive 2012 without their donations. Pleasing them might come naturally to him, since he (obviously) is posessed of their worldview; but doing so will require his confrontation of other powerful elites in American society detailed below. Serious compromise will invoke a storm of disgust from editorial pages and liberal websites; this is a group that has both unity and leverage for the first time in recent American history and intends to exert it.
Military/Intelligence Officials: This has already begun. These men (and they are almost entirely men) have strongly vested interests in the continuation of existing policies from the war in Iraq to torture. Because if those end, their careers will have to face the consequences. Don’t be surprised if the Pentagon and Langley suddenly spring more leaks than the Iraqi navy, because they are looking to discredit a fundamental change in our military and security policy. The Pentagon has more political clout and a more sophisticated PR machine than ever before; when a government does PR, it’s propaganda. Look for a more active military role in attempting to shape policy, and expect serious clashes between the military and civilian government. Finally, these agencies are casualty-insensitive. It’s not as though they don’t care if Americans die in Iraq or in a terrorist attack; quite the opposite, they see their way as the best path to preventing it. However, it is Obama, not them, who will bear the political consequences resulting from their actions.
Traditional Business Elites: Meaning those outside of finance. The stimulus bill has shown that in these times, they can be coopted to support certain segments of a progressive agenda. Clever maneuvering can secure their support for energy initiatives as well, given the immense potential profit in green technology and efficiency. The rising costs of health care and increasing pressure on the private insurance program mean that they can actually be enlisted as allies as well; the optimal solution for business is single-payer. However, expect a tough battle over the Employee Free Choice Act, which attempts to deprive business of some of its power to prevent unionization. Unreliable allies to either party, reliable allies or enemies over any given issue.
Finance Elites: Responsible for the economic crisis, yet still retain most of the political power they gained in the runup to it. Populist outrage against them has yet to grow teeth; it will. Politically toxic, but with huge institutional advantages, including suffocating closeness with most of Congress and the Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner. The current financial situation is currently holding the nation’s economy hostage, and they retain the ties to negotiate favorable terms. Expect vicious internecine fighting between the Democrats; the situation is a political and economic minefield. Many economists think nationalization might be the only way to resolve the bailout’s potential for “zombie banks”; insolvent, non-functional banks kept alive by government intervention; the worst possible combination of socialism and capitalism. Financial (and business) elites will wage a vicious campaign against the merest possibility. Fraught with political peril; an effective solution to the financial crisis might require the neutralization of their political power (confiscatory measures, forced splits of the largest banks, and yes, nationalization).
More elites next time! Upcoming: Republican Elites, Democratic Elites, and the Media!
