Crippled Caliphate

Last week, Europe was rocked by another ghastly ISIS terrorist attack. While attacks in Belgium have lead to calls for changes in strategy in the campaign in Iraq and Syria, this would be a strategically risky proposition. Rather than projecting strength, Brussels attacks underline how precarious the group’s position is in the Middle East. The latest attacks, while demonstrating the continued danger of ISIS and radical networks in Europe to threaten the West, are also likely an attempt to distract from ISIS’s steady implosion.
When ISIS first arose, it was able to successfully take advantage of within Iraq and Syria to seize territory. In Iraq the group exploited divisions between the Iraqi government and Sunni citizens by claiming to be as protectors of Sunni interests. This enabled the group to advance through Sunni areas of Iraq and seize cities like Mosul and Ramadi. The key factor in ISIS’s rise has been the divided nature of its opponents. In Syria the group was able to use strategic short-term alliances and fighting to either co-opt or splinter the already unstable Syrian rebel forces. These tactics of divide and conquer allowed them to successfully seize large swaths of the country. In  past months, this dynamic has reversed, and ISIS now finds itself facing a large number of foes. One of the most under-analyzed recent developments is the imposition of a ceasefire in the Syrian Civil War. While not without problems, the ceasefire has drastically diminished fighting between the Assad government and anti-government rebel forces. As a result of this reduction of fighting, both the government and rebels have been free to turn their guns on ISIS. Beginning in early March the Syrian government undertook an ultimately successful  offensive aimed at retaking the city of Palmyra. Since then they have continued that offensive with the objective of taking back the cities of Al-Qaryatayn and Sukhnah. At the same time, Syrian Kurds have been advancing with the support of American airstrikes throughout northeastern Syria, seizing multiple towns and steadily closing in on the jihadist group’s capital at Raqqa. Despite the unresolved nature of the Syrian Civil War, both the government and the rebels have recognized the ongoing threat of ISIS and have begun pushing the group back.
ISIS has also been under substantial pressure in Iraq. After a campaign of over six months, Iraqi forces successfully ejected the militants from the city of Ramadi. ISIS has also lost towns to the Iraqi Kurds in the north, most notably the city of Sinjar. All of these defeats have placed Mosul, ISIS’s largest Iraqi stronghold, at risk. ISIS has also continued to suffer significant losses of troops and battlefield commanders, including  “War Minister” Omar al-Shishani, to American airstrikes.
With this worsening strategic picture, ISIS has turned to launching ruthless and vivid attacks in Europe, possibly to distract from their worsening battlefield situation. While the horrific attacks in Brussels demonstrate that greater security measures are necessary in order to foil radical networks allied with ISIS operating in Europe, they also reveal the increasing desperation of the group. It is vital that the international community continues the strategy of supporting local ground forces, launching tactical airstrikes, and promoting diplomatic reconciliation. Despite ISIS’s continued danger, the evidence from the battlefield is clear: they are losing the fight.