As the 2020 elections draw near, the future presents two possible paths: the continuation of a presidency that has become emblematic of a global shift rightward, or a return to the liberal moderation that defined the term prior. This choice takes the form of the presidential contest between incumbent Republican President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden, and it has been heavy on the minds of young people across the nation. The past three years of the Trump administration have significantly impacted youth engagement with politics by confusing the young Republican base, alienating swing voters, and invigorating those on the left.
Trump’s 2016 presidential candidacy and election sent shockwaves not only through the establishment Republican party but also through the youth Republican base, which presents very confused attitudes about his current tenure. In a poll conducted by the Harvard Public Opinion Project among 18- through 29-year-old Americans, an overwhelming 83% of young Republicans said they approve of Trump. Despite this apparent certainty, only one in three conservative respondents reported that Trump has made their lives better. Instead, 40% of young conservatives even said Trump’s presidency has had no impact on their lives.
This finding presents a large gap in reasoning that may be reconciled by considering the dual position that young people occupy in society — at once still very influenced by their parents but also developing an increasingly independent consciousness. On one hand, as Boise State University political science professor Jeffrey Lyons discovered in a 2017 study, a young person’s political position at the age of 18 is strongly influenced by their parents’ beliefs. On a seven-point scale, ranging from strongly Democrat to strongly Republican, a child whose father was strongly Republican was an average of 2.5 points more conservative than a child whose father was strongly Democratic. Lyons elaborated that this was the effect of environmental conditioning on both sides of the ideological spectrum, saying, “Kids are these empty cups you can pour beliefs into, and they’re more likely to stick.” Parents’ beliefs, then, may be a strong predictor of the attitudes that young people profess towards the president.
While young Republicans are likely to avow the political views of their parents through approval ratings, responses to deeper questions suggest that their internal feelings are more conflicted than that. This pattern may be the result of a shift within the ideology of the conservative youth: A 2016 study conducted by Gary C. Jacobson in the midst of the prior election cycle found that Republicans were extremely splintered by generation, with youth party affiliates identifying as much less conservative than their elders. Similarly, Wired contributor Issie Lapowsky found that young conservatives view both the president and his ideology as “relics of the past,” representing older Republicans more so than the youth. This trend would explain young Republicans’ professed support for the presidential incumbent, despite harboring more conflicting personal feelings regarding Trump’s direct impact on their lives.
This generational divide also sheds light on a major dissonance between the sentiments of Republican youth across the country and the actions of Republicans in Congress, who have largely fallen into rank with party leadership. A FiveThirtyEight Congressional tracker that compares how often members of Congress vote with or against the president indicates that all but seven Republican senators — out of a total of 63 — have voted in line with Trump’s position more frequently than predicted based on his 2016 margin within their home districts or states. Taken together, this voting tracker and the HPOP data suggest that the Republicanism espoused within the highest legislative chambers — one that frequently follows executive direction — is not representative of the opinions of Republican youth.
Conflicted youth attitudes towards the current presidency, and the larger generational difference within which it is seated, can be ascribed to the way Trump has handled a number of key issues. For instance, take Trump’s antagonistic record towards climate — in three years, the Trump administration has reversed 58 environmental regulations, with 37 more rollbacks in the process. Given interest in climate change among younger generations who will invariably have to deal with the detrimental effects of current environmental practices, it comes as no surprise that most young people do not take a favorable view to Trump’s presidency. A study from the Pew Research Center even found that only three in ten members of Generation Z (those born between 1997 and 2005) approve of Trump’s job performance. Another contributing factor to young Republicans’ hesitation is the changing social landscape of America. There appears to be a growing racial consciousness among youth on both sides of the aisle that is increasingly distancing itself from Donald Trump’s platform and demeanor. According to Pew, Generation Z Republicans are more likely than any other Republican age cohort to say that blacks are not being treated fairly, with 43% agreeing compared to the 20% of Republican Boomers, the generation that dominates Congress today. Climate change and social issues are just two of the issues that have fueled the disconnect between the youth and the current administration.
This uncertainty and ambivalence among Trump’s own youth voter base will translate into real political consequences this fall. While 83% of young Republicans reported approving of Trump earlier, only 53% are sure that they will vote for him in the upcoming election cycle. Among those who identify more broadly as conservatives, rather than just Republican, only 41% are sure they will vote for Trump. This result leaves Trump’s own base divided in half over whether they will vote for him, further highlighting confusion among young conservatives.
In addition to its conflicting impact on Republican youth, the Trump administration has alienated young centrists. Roughly 40% percent of young moderates and those who identify as independents say that they have a worse view of the Republican party because of Trump, while only 7-11% of the same demographic report having a better view. Young people who identify as independents also have a worse view of Trump on the issues, considering that 77% of this demographic disapprove of his handling of climate change, 70% disapprove of his handling of health care, 57% disapprove of his handling of the economy, and 63% disapprove of his handling of coronavirus.
These views encapsulate the genuine alienation among swing voters who might otherwise be drawn to the Republican party during the 2020 elections. One in four moderates reported that they would be more likely to identify with the Republican party if Trump were not associated with it. And even moderates leaning right on the political spectrum are wary of Trump — 75% of them are uncertain whether they’ll vote for him in the general election. This doubt leaves a large portion of the moderate voting base open for either candidate or an independent.
This fact is especially significant when taking into account that among young likely voters, there are as many moderates as liberals. Liberals in particular may be especially vocal about the upcoming election, with 48% of liberals reporting that they are more politically active because of Trump, compared to 24% of moderates and 27% of conservatives. Together, moderates and liberals make up 77% of all young likely voters, most of whom feel alienated in some way by the current president. Trump has lost out on a major portion of the youth vote, leaving these ballots up for grabs by Biden or an independent candidate, if they can figure out how to tap into this electoral cache.
While Trump’s approval ratings among young Republicans initially appear high, a closer look at the data shows that views among the youth towards the current presidency are far from monolithic. Instead, there is far more ambivalence and alienation among young people, both within the Republican party and among independents and Democrats. The race for the youth vote, then, will largely be determined by whether Trump can convince disillusioned young Americans that he can represent their generational perspective or whether Biden can successfully channel their disillusionment and confusion with the previous three years.
Image source: Flickr/GPA Photo Archive
