“Coronavirus kills its first democracy,” proclaimed a Washington Post headline in March 2020. Hungary had just granted Viktor Orbán, its Prime Minister, virtually unchecked emergency powers under the pretense of combating the COVID-19 crisis. Not only would he be able to suspend the enforcement of certain laws on-command, but also define, restrict, and punish the publishing of “distorted facts” that were critical of his government’s rule. Although these emergency powers have since been revoked by the Hungarian Parliament, this event acted as a grim reminder that democratic institutions are not shatterproof. Moreover, it forewarned that the COVID-19 pandemic, which has already claimed over 2.5 million lives globally and pushed almost 100 million people into extreme poverty, could prove to be the greatest challenge to global democracy in decades.
It is important to note that democracy was already showing signs of regression before the outbreak. The fraction of countries considered democracies has gradually declined since 2006, and the year 2019 was the first time since the end of the Cold War that a majority of the global population did not live in a full democracy. In addition, overall freedom throughout the globe has experienced a notable decline over the past two decades. Democracies in countries as diverse and widespread as Turkey, Bangladesh, Thailand, Hungary, and the Philippines are showing symptoms of failure, while many of the world’s biggest players— including the United States, Brazil, India, and Indonesia — have seen a deterioration in the “quality” of their democracies. Some political scientists have even described this shift as a “global democratic recession.”
Unfortunately, this is a trend that has been exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic. According to Freedom House, the condition of democracy and human rights has worsened in 80 countries since the outbreak, with governments throughout the world using the crisis as a pretext to abuse their power, silence critics, and undermine systems of accountability. Government watchdogs have faced increased harassment and persecution in countries like Kazakhstan, while marginalized minority groups, such as the Roma in Bulgaria, have been disproportionately labeled as COVID-19 “super-spreaders” and targeted by unjust pandemic policy.
The disruption of elections for political motives has also been a worrying characteristic of this phenomenon. In Sri Lanka, for example, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa dissolved Parliament six months before the parliamentary term’s scheduled conclusion. In a move that he expected would secure him a larger legislative majority, he scheduled Parliamentary elections for April 2020. However, public health concerns caused the elections to be postponed until August, creating a constitutional crisis in which the president was able to govern with no oversight from parliament.
But perhaps the most frightening way in which the COVID-19 crisis could undermine democracy is by reducing popular confidence in the democratic model. While democracies like the United States have struggled to contain the virus, the success — or apparent success — of authoritarian regimes at controlling the outbreak could send a dangerous message about the efficiency of totalitarianism. As autocracies like China take decisive actions to defeat the virus and expand their influence in both politics and media, their brand of intrusive mass surveillance and coercion threatens to grow in appeal.
Of course, many democracies like New Zealand have been very successful at protecting their citizens from the virus, but the concern that the pandemic could erode preferences for liberal institutions is not far-fetched. For example, researchers studying the effects of the crisis on Spain found that demand for technocratic rule and support for stronger governance rose from pre-pandemic levels. They also uncovered evidence that willingness to give up individual freedom in favor of government efficiency has increased since the turn of the pandemic. If these shifting attitudes toward liberal institutions were to reflect a pattern among other countries, global democracy would indeed find itself in big trouble.
So, is democracy doomed? Although there is no denying that the outbreak of COVID-19 has worsened the already declining state of global democracy, there are many reasons to remain optimistic. Despite many attempts at repression, investigative journalists have been persistent in their scrutiny of government activity and activists have found innovative ways to push back against abuse. In Nigeria, the use of social media and USSD codes for surveys has gained traction, allowing for the collection and spread of information through cell phones instead of physical interactions. In the Czech Republic, investigative journalists have played a pivotal role in providing information about issues in the pandemic response, rallying political opposition and holding the government accountable for its mishandling of resources.
Political action through protest, one of the fundamental pillars of a functioning democracy, has also persevered throughout the crisis. In Belarus, reports of fraud in the August 2020 elections motivated hundreds of thousands of people to take to the streets in protest against Alexander Lukashenko’s repressive government. Likewise, Polish activists have resisted the erosion of their democracy while adapting to the pandemic’s restrictions. They have held protests online, in balconies, in cars, and even formed socially-distanced “human snakes” near government buildings to protest abusive policies.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, support for democracy still thrives. Even if countries like Spain show an increased demand for technocratic governance, discontent with some elements of democratic institutions does not equal an outright rejection of democracy. Overall support for democracy remains historically high, and important political attitudes, like trust and political interest, remain quite stable. In fact, many long-established democracies even saw a surge in support for democracy after the pandemic first hit. In Western Europe, trust in government and satisfaction with democracy rose by a modest amount, while in Canada the pandemic has been associated with greater partisan consensus and confidence in the government. While this does not represent a trend in all democracies, especially in those with worse coronavirus responses, these cases show that the crisis could strengthen some aspects of democracy in the long run.
Amidst the pandemic, global democracy finds itself at a crossroads. The outbreak has provided the conditions and the pretext for abusive governments to bend civil liberties while consolidating executive power. However, the pandemic has also sparked a renaissance of the fight for democracy, as activists and journalists alike are finding innovative ways to fight abuse while support for democratic values surges in many countries. We don’t know if the future of global democracy lies in a continued recession or a new wave of democratization, but as long as people are willing to resist repression and censorship, the spirit of democracy will endure.
Image Credit: “2020 Belarusian Protests” by TR Wikimedia Commons, licensed under CC BY-NC-SA 2.0.
