As the 1992 Presidential election approached, one thing was clear: Ross Perot, a businessman and philanthropist from Texarkana, Texas, would lose. Perot was running what is commonly referred to as a “spoiler campaign,” a campaign that cannot win the election but still impacts its outcome. Perot’s campaign, garnering 19% of the popular vote on election day, had a profound impact on Presidential politics.
The 2024 presidential election has introduced three potential spoiler campaigns whose presence on the ballot could swing the vote in former President Trump’s favor. According to a national poll conducted by TIPP Insights, President Biden and Trump are tied at 38%, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 11%, Cornell West at 2%, and Jill Stein at 1%. However, without third-party candidates, Biden leads the polls by three points at 43% compared with Trump’s 40%. This may seem like a small difference, but slight differences can transform an election’s results.
At this point, the third-party candidates are focused on gathering thousands of signatures to get on the ballot in states across the country. However, the Biden campaign is aware of the risks these third-party candidates pose to his reelection and has started to take action to undermine these candidates’ ballot access efforts. Just recently, the DNC paid for a billboard truck to circle RFK Jr.’s campaign events to rattle his campaign and turn away supporters.
One key aspect to reducing the risk of third-party spoiler effects for the Biden campaign is to focus on locking down one of their key support groups: young Americans. The Harvard Public Opinion Project’s Spring 2024 Youth Poll demonstrates how exposed the Biden campaign is to third-party candidates and gives important insights to how all the candidates should focus their campaign. This February, HPOP polled a random sample of 2,010 Americans aged 18-29 on various questions about U.S. politics and culture, giving a detailed look at this essential population for the 2024 election. Below are observations and analyses of the data collected that could be helpful to the public and the campaigns as they move into a competitive election year.
Fewer Young Democrats: Since the HPOP poll conducted in Spring 2020, the breakdown between Democrats, Republicans, and independents has shifted. The percentage of Democrats amongst young adults has reduced by nearly four percentage points. These populations have been distributed equally to independent and Republican voters, with an increase of two percentage points for Republicans and two percentage points for independents. Although the gains for Republicans and independents are within the margin of error for this survey, the reduced percentage of Democrats in the population is not. This shows how the new young adults who have reached voting age since 2020 have shifted the general tendencies of this constituency. Although youth do not dictate the entire election, they have played a key role in Democrats’ success in many elections for years. Therefore, any loss of support from youth voters could negatively impact President Biden’s performance against Trump.
Biden Is Hurting: Although the third-party candidates hold very different views, RFK Jr. pulls evenly from both Biden and Trump voters, which hurts both candidates. However, this has a bigger impact on Biden because, as mentioned above, Biden relies more on youth to help support the Democratic cause. Without third-party candidates, Biden holds an eight percentage point lead over Trump amongst youth voters. But when third-party candidates like Jill Stein, Cornel West, and RFK Jr. are introduced to the ballot, Biden’s lead over Trump among youth voters falls to three percentage points. Beyond this, voters become uncertain about their votes when the third parties are introduced. This is clearly illustrated by the jump from 16% to 28% of voters who are unsure who to vote for when third-party candidates are introduced.
Enthusiasm: Among youth voters, enthusiasm for the candidates varies widely. For Biden voters, 56% are unenthusiastic about voting for him. In contrast, nearly 68% of Trump voters are enthusiastic to cast their ballot for Trump on Election Day, while only 32% of youth Trump voters are unenthusiastic. The enthusiasm for these candidates shifts when looking at voters who said they definitely will be voting in the 2024 election. The number of enthusiastic Trump voters skyrockets to 76%. Whereas the percent of unenthusiastic voters stays at 56% the same for Biden voters. This is a potential issue of the Biden campaign because unenthusiastic voters could be less likely to turn out on Election Day.
Failed Democracy? 46% of young adults consider the US to be a “democracy in trouble,” while 16% consider the US “a failed democracy.” More specifically, 50% of prospective Trump voters consider the US a “democracy in trouble,” and another 22% consider the US “a failed democracy.” Similarly, 17% of supporters of RFK Jr., a candidate who has taken a less firm stance against the members of the Jan, 6 insurrection, consider the United States to be a “failed democracy.” In contrast, while 52% of prospective Biden voters consider “democracy in trouble,” a comparatively low 6% consider the US “a failed democracy.” This shows insights into how voters’ beliefs around the 2020 election may impact their views of the current state of democracy. Because Trump believes that the 2020 election was rigged, it may lead more of them to see the U.S. as a failed democracy, whereas more Biden voters believe democracy is in trouble because of the failed insurrection on Jan. 6th.
