Without a doubt, President Obama ran a tighter, more effective campaign. Over the summer, President Obama pummeled Governor Romney as a Wall Street executive detached from the problems of Middle Class Americans. Subsequently, Romney emerged from the summer averaging a weak 43 percent favorability among voters, his public image tarnished.
In contrast, heading into the first presidential debate, President Obama’s favorability consistently hovered slightly above 50 percent and he was given 78 percent odds to win the election on inTrade. Despite months of attacks, Governor Romney could not find a message that effectively undercut the President’s lead.
The tipping point occurred on October 3 during the first debate. President Obama himself simply did not deliver, and the polls reflected his weak performance. Following the debate, Obama’s lead in Ohio went from 6 percent to 3 percent. In Florida, the President’s 3 percent advantage turned negative. He now trails by 2 percent in that state. Concerning Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, New Hampshire, you name it … Mitt Romney likely gained ground. In addition, Mitt Romney’s favorability rose 6 percent according to RealClearPolitics’ average and President Obama’s inTrade odds dropped to near their present value at just below 60 percent.
President Obama is still favored to win the election, but barely. Yet, should he lose, the President has only himself to blame; his campaign operations have been focused and on target.