Republican Turnout Likely to be High in Midterm Elections

According to the fall 2014 survey by the Harvard Public Opinion Project, young Republicans are the most enthusiastic group among young Americans with regard to the upcoming midterm elections. Forty-two percent of young Republicans report themselves as likely to vote, in contrast to only 30 percent of young Democrats and 16 percent of young independents. This is a stark drop off in enthusiasm from the 2012 numbers for all demographic groups, even though midterms almost always see lower turnout numbers than general elections. In 2014, Democratic enthusiasm dropped off 35 percentage points from 65 percent in 2012, compared to an 18-percentage point drop from 60 percent in 2012 for the Republicans.

Young voters have not been showing up to the polls at the same rate in the recent midterms elections. The larger drop-off in young Democratic enthusiasm provides one reason Republicans tend to win these elections. In 2010, 38 percent of young Republican respondents and 33 percent of Democrats had indicated that they were likely to vote. That year, Republicans gained six additional seats in the Senate and 63 additional seats in the House.
While the percentage of young Republicans who indicated they would “definitely vote” rose in 2014 compared to 2010, the percentage of young Democrats declined. With young Republicans even more likely to vote in 2014 than in 2010, there is the possibility for additional victories in individual races for the party this year.
Increased young Republican turnout could be the result of additional investment by the right: the College Republican National Committee is spending over $2 million dollars this cycle, according to the Wall Street Journal, on mobilizing college students to vote for Republican Candidates. According to Kristen Soltis Anderson, a GOP consultant and fellow at Harvard’s Institute of Politics, “The Republican Party is finally realizing that they can’t continue to lose young voters by high margins and win elections.”
Young Americans who readily vote also tend to be more supportive of Republicans. Fifty-seven percent of survey respondents who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 indicated that they are likely to vote in this year’s midterms, as compared with only 41 percent of Obama supporters.
Interestingly, while a plurality (50 percent) of young Americans would prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats—compared to the 43 percent who would prefer a Republican Congress—the picture looks quite different among likely voters. Forty-seven percent of likely 18 to 29 year old voters would prefer a Congress controlled by Democrats compared to 51 percent who would prefer one controlled by Republicans.
This observation stands in contrast to the 2010 midterm elections, when the preferences of young Americans in general more closely paralleled the preferences of those likely to vote. Then, 52 percent of young adults overall and 55 percent of likely young voters preferred a Congress controlled by Democrats, while 42 percent overall and 43 percent of likely young voters preferred one controlled by Republicans.
Survey results indicated that the young Americans least likely to vote were those with no party affiliation. Just 16 percent of independent young Americans identified as likely voters. Additionally, only 13 percent of them report themselves as politically engaged. Republicans and Democrats split the support of these few independent likely voters. Forty-four percent preferred a Democratic or Republican Congress, respectively, again showing a slight slant towards the Republican Party.